← Yeti Gaming July 28th Online Regionals
Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at Yeti Gaming July 28th Online Regionals
decks
2
(0.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
6-6-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.6%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1311
· range 1179–1444
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1204
Q3 1396
1656
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Wind Allies | 11.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 40.6% | -7.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
